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Fiscal Forecasts


Fiscal year ending June - Forecasts

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue Including Labour’s changes

 

 

 

 

 

Taxation revenue

77,328

82,614

87,410

91,562

95,922

Other sovereign revenue

5,057

5,452

5,849

6,064

6,422

Total revenue levied through Sovereign power

82,385

88,066

93,259

97,626

102,344

Sales of goods and services

16,994

17,711

18,177

18,566

19,770

Interest revenue and dividends

3,724

3,878

4,108

4,362

4,253

Other revenue

3,700

3,765

3,826

3,874

4,164

Total revenue earned through operations

24,418

25,354

26,111

26,802

28,187

Total revenue (excluding gains)

106,803

113,420

119,370

124,428

130,532

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses including Labour’s investments (see investments page) 

 

 

 

 

 

Social security and welfare

31,577

33,732

35,330

36,634

38,178

Health Expenditure

16,389

17,276

17,997

18,739

19,485

Education

14,741

15,299

15,851

16,267

16,604

Core government services*

4,572

4,243

4,065

3,920

4,122

Law and order

4,435

4,577

4,631

4,713

4,728

Transport and communications

9,637

9,952

10,141

10,615

11,190

Economic and industrial services

7,949

8,646

8,909

9,043

9,456

Defence

2,286

2,351

2,362

2,372

2,371

Heritage, culture and recreation

2,391

2,409

2,399

2,398

2,512

Primary services

1,986

1,970

1,975

2,034

2,097

Housing and community development

1,954

2,109

1,998

2,060

2,212

Environmental protection**

1,012

926

982

984

984

GSF pension expenses

239

251

263

263

254

Other

406

401

396

396

0

Finance costs

4,298

4,214

4,547

4,716

4,879

Labour Spending Allowance for unannounced policies (see page 14) 

293

878

1,776

3,161

4,086

Top-down expense adjustment

-1,000

-545

-500

-500

-520

Total Crown expenses excluding losses

103,165

108,689

113,121

117,816

122,636

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balances

 

 

 

 

 

Minority interest share of OBEGAL

-398

-414

-444

-471

-452

OBEGAL (excluding minority interests)

3,240

4,317

5,805

6,141

7,443

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net gains/losses on financial instruments

2,538

2,781

3,092

3,399

2,983

Net gains/losses on non-financial instruments

-88

-76

-35

-45

0

Less minority interest share of net gains/losses

-26

-7

-6

-7

-7

Total gains/losses

2,424

2,698

3,051

3,347

2,976

Net surplus/deficit frm associates & joint ventures

214

247

315

309

315

Operating balance (excluding minority interests)

5,878

7,262

9,171

9,797

10,734

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown revenue

84,246

89,717

94,766

99,174

103,697

Core Crown expenses

80,560

85,401

88,744

92,591

95,898

Net surplus SoEs and Ces

-416

31

-187

-412

-326

OBEGAL (excluding minority interests)

3,270

4,347

5,835

6,171

7,473

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown cash

 

 

 

 

 

Retained supluses SoEs, CEs and NZS Fund; and non-cash items and working capital movements

1,368

632

1,386

1,934

2,350

Net core Crown operating cash flow

4,638

4,979

7,221

8,105

9,823

NZS Fund contribution

-500

-1,000

-1,500

-2,200

-2,500

Other capital items

-8,015

-6,233

-5,768

-5,501

-6,865

Net core Crown capital cash flow

-8,515

-7,233

-7,268

-7,701

-9,365

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown residual cash

-3,877

-2,254

-47

404

458

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown debt

 

 

 

 

 

Opening Core Crown net debt

62,382

66,259

68,513

68,760

68,357

Core Crown residual cash deficit

3,877

2,254

47

-404

-458

Valuation adjustments

0

0

200

0

0

Closing Core Crown net debt

66,259

68,513

68,760

68,357

67,899

 

 

 

 

 

 

as a % of GDP

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown expenses

28.6

28.8

28.5

28.5

28.3

OBEGAL

1.2

1.5

1.9

1.9

2.2

Closing Core Crown net debt

23.5

23.1

22.0

21.0

20.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

memo item: nominal GDP

281,801

297,042

311,862

324,898

338,815

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net capital expenditure activity

 

 

 

 

 

Net purchase of physical assets

3,196

2,350

2,057

1,620

2,157

Net advances

325

208

193

89

230

Net investments

2,888

2,523

2,114

1,768

1,380

Contribution to NZS Fund

500

1,000

1,500

2,200

2,500

KiwiBuild

2,000

0

0

0

0

Future new capital spending (incl top-down adj)

-394

1,152

1,404

2,024

3,099

Net capital spending***

8,515

7,233

7,268

7,701

9,365

* This declines due to the impact of spending on Kaikoura and Canterbury earthquakes

** This declines due to changes in the revenue generated by the Emissions Trading Scheme

*** This table includes $5.5bn of unallocated capital expenditure over the period. This table also excludes any expenditure associated with any future infrastructure bond financing. The exact way in which this will be accounted for on the balance sheet has yet to be determined.