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Fiscal Forecasts


 

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Forecast

Fiscal year ending June

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue Including Labour’s changes

 

 

 

 

 

Taxation revenue

78,172

82,858

87,293

91,404

95,756

Other sovereign revenue

5,079

5,422

5,826

6,040

6,390

Total revenue levied through Sovereign power

83,251

88,280

93,119

97,444

102,146

Sales of goods and services

17,523

18,191

18,800

19,202

20,370

Interest revenue and dividends

3,772

3,921

4,142

4,361

4,207

Other revenue

3,780

3,871

3,926

3,975

4,269

Total revenue earned through operations

25,075

25,983

26,868

27,538

28,845

Total revenue (excluding gains)

108,326

114,263

119,987

124,982

130,992

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses including Labour’s investments (see here) 

 

 

 

 

 

Social security and welfare

31,796

34,304

35,576

36,864

38,415

Health Expenditure

16,453

17,295

18,016

18,757

19,575

Education

15,093

15,797

16,230

16,757

17,243

Core government services*

5,358

4,685

4,508

4,352

4,486

Law and order

4,435

4,577

4,631

4,673

4,686

Transport and communications

9,778

10,083

10,191

11,120

11,422

Economic and industrial services

8.062

8,733

9,122

9,214

9,629

Defence

2,286

2,351

2,362

2,372

2,372

Heritage, culture and recreation

2,327

2,351

2,356

2,364

2,460

Primary services

1,994

1,987

1,992

2,043

2,105

Housing and community development

2,215

2,130

2,113

2,252

2,357

Environmental protection**

1,025

937

994

996

996

GSF pension expenses

167

213

240

256

247

Other

453

615

610

610

150

Finance costs

4,248

4,274

4,359

4,443

4,882

Operational allowance

913

835

879

1,472

3,429

Top-down expense adjustment

-1,175

-570

-525

-500

-520

Total Crown expenses excluding losses

105,428

110,597

113,657

118,046

123,934

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balances

 

 

 

 

 

Minority interest share of OBEGAL

-392

-421

-460

-476

-463

OBEGAL (excluding minority interests)

2,506

3,245

5,870

6,460

6,594

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net gains/losses on financial instruments

2,770

2,935

3,187

3,440

3,055

Net gains/losses on non-financial instruments

-177

-78

-27

-32

0

Less minority interest share of net gains/losses

-48

-19

-9

-9

-13

Total gains/losses

2,545

2,838

3,151

3,399

3,043

Net surplus/deficit frm associates & joint ventures

206

245

281

299

298

Operating balance (excluding minority interests)

5,257

6,328

9,302

10,158

9,935

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown revenue

85,139

89,962

94,663

99,001

103,627

Core Crown expenses

81,934

86,144

88,227

91,785

96,071

Net surplus SoEs and Ces

-699

-573

-566

-756

-962

OBEGAL (excluding minority interests)

2,506

3,245

5,870

6,460

6,594

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown cash

 

 

 

 

 

Retained surpluses SoEs, CEs and NZS Fund; and non-cash items and working capital movements

1,955

1,722

1,801

2,243

3,025

Net Core Crown operating cash flow

4,461

4,967

7,671

8,703

9,619

NZS Fund contribution

-500

-1,000

-1,500

-2,200

-2,500

Other capital items

-8,180

-6,602

-6,439

-6,325

-7,053

Net Core Crown capital cash flow

-8,680

-7,602

-7,939

-8,525

-9,553

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown residual cash

-4,219

-2,635

-268

178

66

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown debt

 

 

 

 

 

Opening Core Crown net debt

60,560

65,102

67,846

68,087

67,812

Core Crown residual cash deficit

4,219

2,635

268

-178

-66

Valuation adjustments

323

110

-28

-97

-195

Closing Core Crown net debt

65,102

67,846

68,087

67,812

67,552

 

 

 

 

 

 

as a % of GDP

 

 

 

 

 

Core Crown expenses

29.0

29.0

28.4

28.4

28.5

OBEGAL

0.9

1.1

1.9

2.0

2.0

Closing Core Crown net debt

23.0

22.9

21.9

21.0

20.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

memo item: nominal GDP

282,626

296,548

310,543

323,240

337,085

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net capital expenditure activity

 

 

 

 

 

Net purchase of physical assets

3,676

2,648

2,313

1,980

2,181

Net advances

375

311

108

122

228

Net investments

2,773

2,440

2,073

1,588

1,310

Contribution to NZS Fund

500

1,000

1,500

2,200

2,500

KiwiBuild

2,000

0

0

0

0

Future new capital spending

346

1,353

2,185

2,635

3,612

Top-down capital adjustment

-990

-150

-240

0

-276

Net capital spending***

8,680

7,602

7,939

8,525

9,553

* This declines due to the impact of spending on Kaikoura and Canterbury earthquakes

** This declines due to changes in the revenue generated by the Emissions Trading Scheme

*** This table includes $5.5bn of unallocated capital expenditure over the period. This table also excludes any expenditure associated with any future infrastructure bond financing. The exact way in which this will be accounted for on the balance sheet has yet to be determined.